Pastfolio

Learn investing from 155 years of history

It’s not the market. It’s the moment you quit.

Over long stretches the stock market has rarely lost people money. People lose it when they sell in a crash, give up too soon or leave their savings in cash. Live through those moments with real history before you face them with real money.

Replay the 2008 crash Take the 1-minute check-in

Five ways people lose money investing

Each number is computed from the S&P 500’s history with dividends reinvested. Open any of them to check it yourself.

What happened next? Daily puzzle

History check-in

Four quick questions, then Pastfolio shows what history says about a plan like yours. Your answers stay in this browser.

Three ways to explore

Game

Crash Replay

Start with $10,000 at the top of a real crash: 1929, 1973, 2000, 2008 or 2020. Sell or hold as it plays out, then see how your choices compare with holding on.

Play a crash

Simulator

What if I invested?

Pick an amount, how often, and Bitcoin, the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq. See what lump sum, monthly investing, value averaging and a trend rule would have done against a savings account.

Open the simulator

History

S&P 500 Explorer

155 years of the US stock market, 1871 to today. Famous crashes, the longest waits for a new record, and the odds of making money for every holding period.

Open the Explorer

Ideas every investor should know

All lessons

Simulator

What if I invested?

Regular investing against the same money in the bank. Every highlighted word is a control.

What if I had invested every in from … to …?

Every period of this length

Crash Replay

Could you have held on?

Start with $10,000 at the top of a real stock-market crash. Time moves forward one step at a time and you can’t see what’s next. Sell whenever you like, buy back whenever you like.

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…

Your money Invested$10,000
Held all the way$10,000
Market since you started0%

History

S&P 500 Explorer

155 years of the US stock market. See how it behaves over a few months, a few years, or a lifetime.

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Time range
Show i
Dividends i
Inflation
Scale i
If you had invested $ on and sold on , you'd have:

Price

How to use: drag across the chart to zoom into a period, double-click to zoom back out.tap the chart to read any date; use Time range or Famous period above to zoom in. The dashed line is the highest level reached so far (the record). The red area below shows how far the market was under that record. Pink bands mark stretches of 5+ years without a new record.

How long you hold matters

Every possible start month in the selected time range, held for different lengths of time. The longer people held, the more often they made money.

Bought on any date and held 10 years

Each point on the line is one investor: they bought on that date (bottom axis), held for the number of years you choose, and earned this much per year (side axis). Above zero (blue) = made money. Below zero (red) = lost money.

Longest waits for a new record high

After the market hits a record, how long until it beats it again? These are the longest waits in history. ClickTap a row to see it on the chart. Try switching Dividends and Inflation: the waits change a lot.

Pick a year to buy and a year to sell

Every square is one possible investment. Go along the bottom to the year you bought (on Jan 1). Go up the side to the year you sold (on Dec 31). The square where they meet shows how much you made per year: blue = made money, red = lost money; darker = bigger. Squares near the diagonal are short holds; squares far from it are long holds — notice how the red disappears as you move away from the diagonal. Hover or clickTap any square to read it in plain words.

Learn

Seven lessons from market history

Short, data-backed lessons. Every figure is computed from the same history the tools use, and each lesson opens the exact chart behind it.

The strategies in the simulator

Bank savings
The baseline. The same deposits as monthly investing, left in a savings account that pays a fixed yearly rate you choose.
Lump sum
Invest the whole budget on day one and hold it.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA)
Invest the same amount every week or month, whatever the price. You automatically buy more when prices are low and less when they're high.
Value averaging
Top the holding up to a target that grows by a fixed amount each period: buy more after drops, sell some after spikes.
Trend (moving average)
Be fully invested while the price is above its roughly 200-day average, and in cash while it's below. It aims to sidestep long declines, at the cost of some whipsaws.

Glossary

S&P 500
An index of 500 of the largest US companies. Its level is a weighted average of their share prices. Index funds let you buy all 500 at once. Before 1957 this uses its predecessors (the S&P 90 and earlier composite indices).
Nasdaq Composite
An index of the companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavy in technology. It tends to rise and fall harder than the S&P 500.
Bitcoin
A digital currency with no company or cash flow behind it. Its price has swung far more than stock indices, in both directions.
All-time high (record)
The highest level the index has ever closed at, up to that day.
Drawdown
How far an investment is below its last high. −50% means it is worth half of its peak.
Bull / bear market
A bull market is a long rise. A bear market is usually defined as a fall of 20% or more from a high.
Per year (annualized return, CAGR)
The steady yearly growth rate that would turn the starting value into the ending value. +7% per year roughly doubles your money every 10 years.
Money-weighted return (IRR)
The yearly return that accounts for when each deposit went in. Used for regular investing, where early money has more time to grow than late money.
Dividends
Cash companies pay shareholders. Historically they made up a large part of stock returns, especially before 1990, when they were often 4–6% a year.
Inflation-adjusted (real)
Values converted into today's dollars using the Consumer Price Index, so you compare actual buying power instead of raw numbers.
Diversification
Spreading money across many investments so one failure can't sink the whole. An index fund is diversified across hundreds of companies.
Time horizon
How long until you need the money. The longer it is, the more time investments have to recover from falls.
Log scale (% steps)
A chart scale where equal percentage changes look equal in height. Best for long periods.

How the numbers are calculated

Explorer and Guide. S&P 500 history: monthly prices, dividends and US consumer prices (CPI) from 1871, and daily closes from 1928. “Dividends reinvested” adds each month's dividend back into the index. “After inflation” converts every value into today's dollars. Months after the latest dividend figure assume the last known dividend yield. Guide statistics look at every start month since 1871, using month-end values.

What If. Daily closes for Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, rolled up to week or month. Price indices only: no dividends, fees or taxes. Returns are money-weighted (IRR); drawdowns are measured on a time-weighted index so new deposits don't count as growth.

Trademarks. S&P 500® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC, and Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. Pastfolio is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by them or by any data provider.

Accuracy. These figures are computed automatically and may contain mistakes or be out of date. They are for learning, not for making investment decisions.

The Pastfolio Course

Know what you’ll do before the next crash.

Twelve short, interactive modules built on 155 years of real market history. Read a little, try it in the real tools, check yourself, and leave with a written plan for your own money. No stock tips, no product picks, ever.

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Built on numbers like these

Every figure in the course is computed live from the S&P 500’s history, with dividends reinvested. Here are three of them.

How each module works

  1. 1Read

    A few minutes of plain English, with the figures that matter.

  2. 2Try it

    Open the exact chart, crash or simulation behind it and see for yourself.

  3. 3Check

    Three quick questions, each answer explained.

  4. 4Decide

    Write one line for your plan. It all comes together on your plan card.

What’s inside

Module 1 is free. Read it now, no sign-up.

It’s for you if…

  • you have savings sitting in cash and keep putting off investing
  • you invest already, but a crash would make you want to sell
  • you want to understand the risks in numbers, not slogans
  • you’d rather learn from what actually happened than from predictions

It’s not for you if…

  • you want stock tips, a fund recommendation or a broker to sign up with
  • you want a trading system or a promise of returns
  • you need advice on your own situation: that’s a licensed adviser’s job

Our promise

No product, fund, broker or trade will ever be recommended, in the course, in our emails, anywhere. Historical data only. Your progress and notes stay in your browser.

The Pastfolio Course

$49 one time

Questions

Is this financial advice?

No. The course describes what happened in the past and helps you think through your own plan. It never tells you what to buy or sell, and it doesn’t know your full situation. For advice on your own money, talk to a licensed financial adviser.

Do I need to know anything about investing first?

No. Module 1 starts from “why not just keep it in savings?”, and every term is explained when it first comes up. The Learn section has a glossary too.

How long does it take?

About 2½ hours in all: twelve modules of 10–15 minutes. Go at your own pace; your progress is saved in your browser.

The data is from the US market. Is it useful elsewhere?

The figures use the S&P 500, because it has the longest, most complete record. The lessons, about horizons, falls, timing, inflation and fees, apply to any broad stock market, and the course is clear about where US history may not repeat.

What if it isn’t for me?

Read Module 1 free first. If you buy the course and it isn’t useful, ask for a refund within 30 days.

Do you collect my answers?

No. Your check-in, quiz answers, notes and crash plan are stored only in your browser.

The Pastfolio Course

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