Over long stretches the stock market has rarely lost people money. People lose it when they sell in a crash, give up too soon or leave their savings in cash. Live through those moments with real history before you face them with real money.
Regular investing against the same money in the bank. Every highlighted word is a control.
What if I had invested
every
in
from
…
to
…?
Every period of this length
Crash Replay
Could you have held on?
Start with $10,000 at the top of a real stock-market crash. Time moves forward one step at a time and you can’t see what’s next. Sell whenever you like, buy back whenever you like.
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…
Your money Invested$10,000
Held all the way$10,000
Market since you started0%
YouHeld all the wayIn cash
History
S&P 500 Explorer
155 years of the US stock market. See how it behaves over a few months, a few years, or a lifetime.
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Time range
Show i
Dividends i
Inflation
Scale i
If you had invested
$
on and sold on , you'd have:
Price
How to use:drag across the chart to zoom into a period, double-click to zoom back out.tap the chart to read any date; use Time range or Famous period above to zoom in. The dashed line is the highest level reached so far (the record). The red area below shows how far the market was under that record. Pink bands mark stretches of 5+ years without a new record.
How long you hold matters
Every possible start month in the selected time range, held for different lengths of time. The longer people held, the more often they made money.
Bought on any date and held 10 years
Each point on the line is one investor: they bought on that date (bottom axis), held for the number of years you choose, and earned this much per year (side axis). Above zero (blue) = made money. Below zero (red) = lost money.
Longest waits for a new record high
After the market hits a record, how long until it beats it again? These are the longest waits in history. ClickTap a row to see it on the chart. Try switching Dividends and Inflation: the waits change a lot.
Pick a year to buy and a year to sell
Every square is one possible investment. Go along the bottom to the year you bought (on Jan 1). Go up the side to the year you sold (on Dec 31). The square where they meet shows how much you made per year: blue = made money, red = lost money; darker = bigger. Squares near the diagonal are short holds; squares far from it are long holds — notice how the red disappears as you move away from the diagonal. Hover or clickTap any square to read it in plain words.
Learn
Seven lessons from market history
Short, data-backed lessons. Every figure is computed from the same history the tools use, and each lesson opens the exact chart behind it.
The strategies in the simulator
Bank savings
The baseline. The same deposits as monthly investing, left in a savings account that pays a fixed yearly rate you choose.
Lump sum
Invest the whole budget on day one and hold it.
Dollar-cost averaging (DCA)
Invest the same amount every week or month, whatever the price. You automatically buy more when prices are low and less when they're high.
Value averaging
Top the holding up to a target that grows by a fixed amount each period: buy more after drops, sell some after spikes.
Trend (moving average)
Be fully invested while the price is above its roughly 200-day average, and in cash while it's below. It aims to sidestep long declines, at the cost of some whipsaws.
Glossary
S&P 500
An index of 500 of the largest US companies. Its level is a weighted average of their share prices. Index funds let you buy all 500 at once. Before 1957 this uses its predecessors (the S&P 90 and earlier composite indices).
Nasdaq Composite
An index of the companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange, heavy in technology. It tends to rise and fall harder than the S&P 500.
Bitcoin
A digital currency with no company or cash flow behind it. Its price has swung far more than stock indices, in both directions.
All-time high (record)
The highest level the index has ever closed at, up to that day.
Drawdown
How far an investment is below its last high. −50% means it is worth half of its peak.
Bull / bear market
A bull market is a long rise. A bear market is usually defined as a fall of 20% or more from a high.
Per year (annualized return, CAGR)
The steady yearly growth rate that would turn the starting value into the ending value. +7% per year roughly doubles your money every 10 years.
Money-weighted return (IRR)
The yearly return that accounts for when each deposit went in. Used for regular investing, where early money has more time to grow than late money.
Dividends
Cash companies pay shareholders. Historically they made up a large part of stock returns, especially before 1990, when they were often 4–6% a year.
Inflation-adjusted (real)
Values converted into today's dollars using the Consumer Price Index, so you compare actual buying power instead of raw numbers.
Diversification
Spreading money across many investments so one failure can't sink the whole. An index fund is diversified across hundreds of companies.
Time horizon
How long until you need the money. The longer it is, the more time investments have to recover from falls.
Log scale (% steps)
A chart scale where equal percentage changes look equal in height. Best for long periods.
How the numbers are calculated
Explorer and Guide. S&P 500 history: monthly prices, dividends and US consumer prices (CPI) from 1871, and daily closes from 1928. “Dividends reinvested” adds each month's dividend back into the index. “After inflation” converts every value into today's dollars. Months after the latest dividend figure assume the last known dividend yield. Guide statistics look at every start month since 1871, using month-end values.
What If. Daily closes for Bitcoin, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite, rolled up to week or month. Price indices only: no dividends, fees or taxes. Returns are money-weighted (IRR); drawdowns are measured on a time-weighted index so new deposits don't count as growth.
Trademarks. S&P 500® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC, and Nasdaq® is a registered trademark of Nasdaq, Inc. Pastfolio is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by them or by any data provider.
Accuracy. These figures are computed automatically and may contain mistakes or be out of date. They are for learning, not for making investment decisions.
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Contact. Questions about your privacy, or anything else about Pastfolio? You can find and contact the person who makes it at geralexgr.com.
The Pastfolio Course
Know what you’ll do before the next crash.
Twelve short, interactive modules built on 155 years of real market history. Read a little, try it in the real tools, check yourself, and leave with a written plan for your own money. No stock tips, no product picks, ever.
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12 modules10–15 minutes each, about 2½ hours in all
Hands-on with real dataEvery module opens a live exercise in Crash Replay, What If or the Explorer
Quizzes that explainThree questions per module, each answer explained
Your plan cardYour horizon, your odds and your crash plan on one printable page, plus a certificate
Built on numbers like these
Every figure in the course is computed live from the S&P 500’s history, with dividends reinvested. Here are three of them.
How each module works
1Read
A few minutes of plain English, with the figures that matter.
2Try it
Open the exact chart, crash or simulation behind it and see for yourself.
3Check
Three quick questions, each answer explained.
4Decide
Write one line for your plan. It all comes together on your plan card.
What’s inside
Module 1 is free. Read it now, no sign-up.
It’s for you if…
you have savings sitting in cash and keep putting off investing
you invest already, but a crash would make you want to sell
you want to understand the risks in numbers, not slogans
you’d rather learn from what actually happened than from predictions
It’s not for you if…
you want stock tips, a fund recommendation or a broker to sign up with
you want a trading system or a promise of returns
you need advice on your own situation: that’s a licensed adviser’s job
Our promise
No product, fund, broker or trade will ever be recommended, in the course, in our emails, anywhere. Historical data only. Your progress and notes stay in your browser.
The Pastfolio Course
$49 one time
All 12 modules, with live figures and exercises
Quizzes, progress tracking and your printable plan card
Certificate of completion
Every future update to the course
Questions
Is this financial advice?
No. The course describes what happened in the past and helps you think through your own plan. It never tells you what to buy or sell, and it doesn’t know your full situation. For advice on your own money, talk to a licensed financial adviser.
Do I need to know anything about investing first?
No. Module 1 starts from “why not just keep it in savings?”, and every term is explained when it first comes up. The Learn section has a glossary too.
How long does it take?
About 2½ hours in all: twelve modules of 10–15 minutes. Go at your own pace; your progress is saved in your browser.
The data is from the US market. Is it useful elsewhere?
The figures use the S&P 500, because it has the longest, most complete record. The lessons, about horizons, falls, timing, inflation and fees, apply to any broad stock market, and the course is clear about where US history may not repeat.
What if it isn’t for me?
Read Module 1 free first. If you buy the course and it isn’t useful, ask for a refund within 30 days.
Do you collect my answers?
No. Your check-in, quiz answers, notes and crash plan are stored only in your browser.